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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
The Polish general election taking place 15 October looks likely to result in a hung parliament according to recent opinion polls. The incumbent right-wing populist United Right (ZP) alliance of Deputy PM Jarosław Kaczyński maintains its position at the top of opinion polling. Average polling in September has the alliance winning 198 seats in the 460-member Sejm (lower house), short of the 231 required for an outright majority.
- If ZP does fall short of a majority its only likely ally would be the far-right nationalist/libertarian Confederation. The Confederation alliance is on course for its best-ever performance, and could come in third place nationally. No pre-election pact has been made with ZP, but if the United Right falls short it could be forced into seeking the backing of the hard eurosceptic Confederation to retain power, risking a deterioration of already-strained relations with Brussels.
- The other alternative is a conglomeration of the three main anti-ZP forces: the broad tent Civic Coalition (KO) of former PM Donald Tusk, the centre-right/centrist Third Way formed by the agrarian Polish People's Party and liberal Poland 2050, and the social democratic The Left.
- Even within each coalition there are tensions between the parties, so reaching a tripartite agreement on forming a gov't could prove too difficult. However, each group is united by their aim to oust ZP from power, which could see each alliance more willing to make concessions should the real prospect of removing PM Morawiecki and Deputy PM Kaczyński emerge.
Chart 1. Poland General Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projections (Dashed line indicates 231 seats required for overall majority)
Source: United Surveys, Estymator, Research Partner, IBRiS, IPSOS, Kantar Public, IBSP, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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