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EURHUF Trades at Lowest Level Since June 2022

HUNGARY
The forint has reversed losses against the euro following the NBH policy rate decision and the release of the accompanying press statement. HUF sits comfortably at the top of the CEEMEA FX leader board (EURZAR: +0.50%; EURPLN: +0.05%).

  • EURHUF is trading at 390.92 at the time of typing, through the key support level at 392.06, the Aug 12 low. Technically, a clear break of this level will confirm a resumption of the downtrend ahead of June 2022 lows as well as 390.00 and below.
  • Hungary’s decision to hold the key rate at 13.0% is in-line with unanimous expectations, but the NBH also emphasised that its alternate policy tools (largely liquidity draining tools) have been effective and will therefore be used regularly in the coming periods.
  • The press statement also cited an improvement in investor sentiment and strengthened its expectations that inflation will turnaround in the coming months. This lent strength to the currency as investors seek the generous HUF carry profile – as has been the general theme with EM assets in 2023.
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