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NATGAS: European Gas Recovers but Warmer Weather Keeps it Under Pressure

NATGAS
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European gas markets reversed earlier declines but remain down on Monday due to warmer weather in Northwest Europe over the coming weeks and slowing inventory declines.

  • TTF MAR 25 down -0.4% at 47.02€/MWh
  • Above-average temperatures are expected in northwest Europe for most of the next two weeks, potentially easing pressure on inventories.
  • Eased storage talks in Europe have helped prompt the recent declining trend for European gas prices as well as efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
  • Inventories are just over 40% full which adds support for summer refill demand.
  • Speaking in Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claims that if Ukraine continues its current speed and momentum of reform there is the prospect of EU accession "earlier than 2030".
  • European LNG imports in February are set to rise to the second highest on record boosted by the end of the Ukraine transit volumes while Asia imports fall to the lowest since April 2023 LSEG numbers show.
  • EU’s underground gas storage sites are expected to end winter 38% full Kpler forecasts.
  • European LNG sendout fell to 375mcm/d into the weekend on Feb. 22 compared to an average of 413mcm/d over the previous week.
  • A total of 407k of open ICE TTF gas March 25 options contracts are due to expire against the March futures close today. Aggregate open interest is 177k call contracts and 229k puts.
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European gas markets reversed earlier declines but remain down on Monday due to warmer weather in Northwest Europe over the coming weeks and slowing inventory declines.

  • TTF MAR 25 down -0.4% at 47.02€/MWh
  • Above-average temperatures are expected in northwest Europe for most of the next two weeks, potentially easing pressure on inventories.
  • Eased storage talks in Europe have helped prompt the recent declining trend for European gas prices as well as efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
  • Inventories are just over 40% full which adds support for summer refill demand.
  • Speaking in Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claims that if Ukraine continues its current speed and momentum of reform there is the prospect of EU accession "earlier than 2030".
  • European LNG imports in February are set to rise to the second highest on record boosted by the end of the Ukraine transit volumes while Asia imports fall to the lowest since April 2023 LSEG numbers show.
  • EU’s underground gas storage sites are expected to end winter 38% full Kpler forecasts.
  • European LNG sendout fell to 375mcm/d into the weekend on Feb. 22 compared to an average of 413mcm/d over the previous week.
  • A total of 407k of open ICE TTF gas March 25 options contracts are due to expire against the March futures close today. Aggregate open interest is 177k call contracts and 229k puts.