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European Intelligence Sees May 9th as Key Date in Ukraine Crisis

RUSSIA
  • Overnight reports citing European and NATO intelligence suggest Ukraine have roughly a two week window to acquire, train for, and position heavy equipment including tanks and artillery before Russia launch an offensive in the eastern territories of the country. The intelligence cites the May 9th anniversary of Germany’s defeat in WWII, which is usually accompanied by a significant military parade. The thinking follows that Putin would want to declare some form of victory by that date.
  • The European Commission yesterday released an analysis of Putin’s RUB for gas demands, stating that EU states would be in breach of sanctions if they met the pledge to pay in the Russian currency. This raises the pressure on future energy flows, with Putin warning they will cut off gas supplies from March 31st if the RUB payments aren’t met.
  • Today, Putin is to chair a meeting focusing on the oil & gas sector. Yesterday, when discussing Russia’s Arctic territories, the Russian leader spoke of boosting domestic demand for oil & gas products, and chastised Western partners for politicising energy payments.
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