EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 19 August, 2024

Germany will look to hold two auctions in the upcoming week, and we also think Finland may hold a syndication. Overall, issuance remains light during the summer. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E9.0bln, down from E18.2bln this week.

• Finland may look to hold its Q3 syndication in the upcoming week (if not it is likely to be the following week). The Finnish Treasury notes that a “potential maturity” is for 5-7 year, although it also noted that “if market conditions were to prove favourable for a longer maturity e.g 15 years, that could be considered”. The possibility of a 15-year RFGB was noted in the last two quarterly funding plans, so there does appear to be some eagerness from the Treasury to issue in this area if market conditions make it favourable.
• On Tuesday, Germany will hold a green auction. On offer will be E750mln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005) and E750mln of the 0% Aug-50 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030724).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
• Note that Belgium will not hold its auction planned for Monday, while Slovakia will also not hold its reserve auction which had been pencilled in for the same day. Spain has also cancelled its auction that had been due to be held on Thursday.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees one small redemption: E0.3bln of a formerly 7-year LithGB. Coupon payments for the week total E0.2bln, of which E0.1bln are from the EFSF and E0.1bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E8.5bln, versus negative E23.1bln this week.

For a recap of last week's issuance and more details on the next two weeks see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.