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PLN: EURPLN Targets 2018 Low Next as Strong Retail Sales Supports Zloty

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

The Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have moved off their best levels of the day following the latest dip across major equities and subsequent move lower for EURUSD. Nonetheless, both remain around 0.4-0.5% higher against the single currency, with the former at a new multi-year high. Recent fresh cycle lows in EURPLN confirm a resumption of the downtrend, with sights on the 2018 low of 4.1293. A break of this level would place the cross at its lowest since 2015.

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales data for January has helped underpin zloty outperformance today, with local analysts pointing to an encouraging rebound in durable goods sales, suggesting that the economy is off to a strong start this year. The print may also help to reinforce a higher-for-longer scenario regarding NBP policy with PLN FRAs showing slightly higher today.
  • The Ukraine story remains the key driver across CEE FX, with the zloty particularly sensitive to such matters. Indeed, the WIG-UKRAINE Index, which tracks Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, rallied by as much as 12.0% this morning, building on a 15.2% upswing registered on Friday. While intraday gains have since moderated, the index remains at multi-year highs.
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The Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have moved off their best levels of the day following the latest dip across major equities and subsequent move lower for EURUSD. Nonetheless, both remain around 0.4-0.5% higher against the single currency, with the former at a new multi-year high. Recent fresh cycle lows in EURPLN confirm a resumption of the downtrend, with sights on the 2018 low of 4.1293. A break of this level would place the cross at its lowest since 2015.

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales data for January has helped underpin zloty outperformance today, with local analysts pointing to an encouraging rebound in durable goods sales, suggesting that the economy is off to a strong start this year. The print may also help to reinforce a higher-for-longer scenario regarding NBP policy with PLN FRAs showing slightly higher today.
  • The Ukraine story remains the key driver across CEE FX, with the zloty particularly sensitive to such matters. Indeed, the WIG-UKRAINE Index, which tracks Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, rallied by as much as 12.0% this morning, building on a 15.2% upswing registered on Friday. While intraday gains have since moderated, the index remains at multi-year highs.