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Falling TTF Pushes March Spread in Favour of LNG Flow to Asia

LNG

Decline in TTF today is pushing the gas spreads back toward a premium to Asia after holding near parity in recent days.

  • TTF front month is drifting lower today with warm weather expected in February as winter supply risks reduced towards the end of the winter heating season amid high storage levels and steady LNG supplies.
  • The front month JKM-TTF is back up to +1.45$/mmbtu today after trading just above zero for most of the last week.
  • The estimated March US netback to Europe is at 13.74$/mmbtu while the US netback to Asia is 14.49$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg. The coming summer months are currently encouraging US flows to Europe over Asia.
  • Total EU LNG sendout is steady around 400mcm/d on 5 Feb with imports well above normal but at similar levels to last year.
  • Another 26 cargoes are currently expected in to terminals in NW Europe in the next two weeks with 16 cargoes already arrived so far this month. A total of 79 cargoes arrived in January and 90 in December.
    • TTF MAR 23 down -4.1% at 53.15€/MWh
    • NBP MAR 23 down -4.3% at 134p/th
    • JKM Mar 23 down -1.7% at 18.19$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Mar 23 up 0.2$/mmbtu at 1.4$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 23 down -2.7% at 2.51$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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