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Fed Hike Expectations Drift Higher

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds continued to drift higher through Asian and European sessions, continuing a move after the FOMC minutes noted possibility of an "even more restrictive" stance could be appropriate, with risk later supported by China considering unprecedented acceleration on infra funding.
  • Sitting at 72bps for July, 126bp for Sep and 180bp for Dec. The latter is up from yesterday’s low of 160bp prior to the ISM service beat, but only back to levels from earlier in the week and still towards the low end of the post-June FOMC range.
  • Gov Waller and Bullard (’22 voter) both speak at 1300ET at separate events. Latest commentary saw Waller view recession fears a “bit over blown” whilst backing 75bps in July (Jun 18) whilst Bullard saw TIPS pricing a 3.5% Fed Funds rate as a good sign and the US in the early stages of the expansion (Jun 24).

Source: Bloomberg

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