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Fed Hike Expectations See New Highs

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures have increased further today, with 227bps priced to year-end having earlier touched a new high of 230bps, in part helping drive the flattening in Treasuries.
  • Whilst not particularly new compared to previously implied paths, further talk of 50bp hikes from non-voting FOMC members and the need to move quickly to neutral has particularly supported the near-term meetings.
  • There is now both 50bp for May and 100bp for June fully priced, whilst July gets a further boost to 143bps over the three meetings.
  • Powell speaks tomorrow as part of an IMF panel with Lagarde, the last scheduled Fedspeak before the media blackout starting Friday at midnight.
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