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Fed Hike Front-Loading Helped By Waller

STIR FUTURES
  • 49.5bp for May (new high), 94.5bps for June (close to highs) but softer beyond with 129bp for July and 205bp to year-end in FOMC-dated Fed Funds.
  • Helped by Waller (voter) late yesterday: “I prefer a front-loading approach. So a 50 basis-point hike in May would be consistent with that and possibly more in June and July.”
  • Plenty of potential triggers today with the ECB decision plus retail sales and U.Mich likely the pick of data. NY Fed’s Williams (voter) at 0845ET before late appearances from Mester (’22 voter) and Harker (’23) after an early close.

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