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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Hikes implied by Fed Funds futures are little changed on the day despite broader risk-on ahead of today’s FOMC decision.
- It is still widely expected to hike 25bps today (28bp priced) and has just shy of 100bp of hikes over the three meetings up to and including June.
- There is 175bp of cumulative tightening priced for 2022, hit for the first time earlier this week, from ~120bps after the Jan 26 meeting.
- The Dec dot plot had a median estimate of 3x25bp hikes with only two participants at 4x25bp in 2022. Broad consensus is for the dots to now show between 4 and 6 hikes (assuming all hikes of 25bp). 5 is MNI's baseline, with risks of 6. 4 would be a very dovish surprise; 6 would be a modestly hawkish surprise; 7 or more would be very hawkish. (Full preview: https://marketnews.com/mni-fed-preview-mar-2022)
Cumulative hikes from FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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