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Fed Rate Path Off Overnight Lows After SNB/NB Lean Hawkish

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes were trimmed further through Asia hours before lifting with the SNB and Norges Bank leaning hawkish. BoE still to come.
  • It leaves a 12.5bp hike priced for May’s FOMC to a terminal 4.94% (unch), with the first cut from current levels still seen in Sept with -20bps for Jul (unch). There are 76bps of cuts from the peak to 4.17% by year-end (-0.5bp), the latter off lows of 4.1% overnight but down from 4.36% shortly before the FOMC decision.
  • The media blackout continues today as is customary, with Bullard (non-voter) next up tomorrow.


Source: FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rates

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