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Fed Rates Nudge Higher Overnight But Don’t Change Narrative

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed in European hours to leave them slightly higher than yesterday but with Monday’s ISM Services miss still weighing for now.
  • Cumulative change from 5.08% effective: +6bp Jun (+1bp), +19.5bp Jul (+1bp), +16bp Sep (+1bp), +5bp Nov (+2bp), -9bp Dec (+2bp) and -26bp Jan (+2bp).
  • A light data docket sees potential spillover from today’s BoC decision at 1000ET with the market pricing 50/50 between holding or hiking for the first time since Jan at a time the Fed’s ‘skip’ narrative is firmly in place. US CPI on Jun 13 remains the main hurdle ahead of the Jun 13-14 FOMC meeting.

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