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USD Index Hovering Close To Cycle Lows Approaching US GDP Data

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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

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Fed Terminal Holding Around 5.1% Ahead of CPI

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have cooled modestly in past few hours, more notably so for 2H23.
  • 57.5bp for Dec (+1bp on the day), cumulative 97bp to 4.81% for Feb’23 (+1bp), terminal 5.09% for Jun’23 (+0.5bp) and 4.75% for Dec’23 (-2bp).
  • Barkin (’24 voter) earlier: “I like the idea of going slower for longer to a potentially higher place, because it will give you time to read the data and what you're learning from contacts and react appropriately”.
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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have cooled modestly in past few hours, more notably so for 2H23.
  • 57.5bp for Dec (+1bp on the day), cumulative 97bp to 4.81% for Feb’23 (+1bp), terminal 5.09% for Jun’23 (+0.5bp) and 4.75% for Dec’23 (-2bp).
  • Barkin (’24 voter) earlier: “I like the idea of going slower for longer to a potentially higher place, because it will give you time to read the data and what you're learning from contacts and react appropriately”.