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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
The final results of the 14 Nov general election, including all special votes, have been released and - as expected - show that in order to govern the centre-right Nationals will be required to form a three-party governing coalition. The final results show the Nationals on 48 seats, with their allies the libertarian ACT on 11.
- Their combined 59 seats puts them short of the 62 required for a majority, even in the likely event that the Nationals' total increases to 49 following the 25 Nov Port Waikato by-election.
- There is also the added complexity of recounts, with a number of seats decided by extremely slim margins and the Nationals indicating that they would challenge the results. Indeed, former PM Jacinda Arden's Mount Albert seat was decided by a margin of just 20 votes in Labour's favour, down from over 20k in 2020.
- Nationals leader Christopher Luxon will have to reach an agreement with the populist New Zealand First (NZF) of former Deputy PM Winston Peters. Getting agreement from the low-tax, small-state ACT and the high-welfare, pensioner-interest NZF could prove difficult, with Luxon's tax-cutting plans already under threat.
- Luxon stated that "There is goodwill and good faith from all three political party leaders to move through the (negotiation) processes constructively and as quickly as possible," but warned he could not guarantee a coalition agreement, "...because there is complexity in arrangements that we need to work through."
Chart 1. Result of 14 November General Election, Seats
Source: Electoral Commission. N.b. One seat in grey is vacant. By-election for Port Waikato electorate to take place 25 Nov.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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