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Firmer Following CPI; Curve Bull Steepens

GILTS

Gilt futures are +50 ticks at 97.51 following this morning's CPI print, though still operate around 40 ticks short of yesterday's best levels. Yesterday's high of 97.95 remains the first resistance, though better is seen at the 98.62 (20-day EMA).

  • A reminder that today's print is not as soft as it appeared at first glance, with services CPI only just below the BoE's Feb MPR forecasts and driven largely by a downside surprise in the volatile air fares component.
  • The cash curve has bull steepened, with 2Y yields over 10bps lower today (though still above Monday's close following yesterday's strong domestic wages and US CPI data).
  • BoE-dated OIS contracts price 69bps of easing through 2024, down from 72bps post-data. The SONIA strip is now +1.5 to +10.5 ticks through the blues, off intraday highs but with the back of the whites/reds still outperforming.
  • A reminder that the bidding deadline for today's 10-year Gilt supply (GBP3.75bln of the 4.625% Jan-34 Gilt) closes at 1130GMT (as is normal for an auction on CPI release day).
  • BoE Governor Bailey testifies to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee today at 1500GMT.
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