Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
On the evening of 9 Nov, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa confirmed that he would take the requisite steps to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic (parliament), ushering in snap elections, following the resignation of PM Antonio Costa amid a corruption probe. The president confirmed previous reports that the election would not be imminent. Instead, he will delay the posting of the decree in the Diaria de Republica until after 29 Nov. This will ensure that parliament passes the 2024 budget and requisite measures related to the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility. The election has been called for 10 March, with Costa and his gov't remaining in place in a caretaker capacity until then.
- The first poll carried out since Costa's resignation shows a notable slump in support for Costa's centre-left Socialist Party (PS):
- Intercampus, Fieldwork 7-8 Nov, (Chgs w.18-23 Oct), 602 respondents. Social Democratic Party (PSD): 27.0% (-0.9), PS: 22.2% (-5.1), CHEGA: 16.1% (+3.4), Left Bloc (BE): 9.8% (+2.5), Liberal Initiative (IL): 8.7% (-0.3), Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU): 4.0% (-0.4), LIVRE: 3.3% (+1.8), People Animals Nature (PAN): 2.8% (-0.7).
- While a single opinion poll should not be viewed in isolation, such a sharp drop off for the PS (22.2% is the party's lowest polling support since Nov 2012) is notable. Should a result of this nature be repeated in the election no party would win an outright majority. The post-election options would likely revolve around either a right-wing coalition under the centre-right PSD, potentially involving the right-wing nationalist CHEGA, or a previously-unthinkable 'grand alliance' between the PSD and Costa-less PS.
Source: Intercampus, MNI. N.b. Fieldwork 18-23 Oct and 7-8 Nov
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.