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Flurry Of Diplomacy Continues As Ukraine Crisis Escalates

POLITICAL RISK
Intensified diplomatic activity surrounding the Ukraine crisis continued over the weekend as more nations urged their citizens to leave the East European country. U.S. President Joe Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of the costs of invasion and reassurred Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky that the U.S. would respond "swiftly and decisively" should the Kremlin decide to attack. According to CNN sources, Zelensky asked Biden for more military and financial aid to Ukraine and invited him to visit Kyiv as soon as possible, albeit White House officials deem such a trip extremely unlikely.
  • Renewed flurry of diplomatic activity comes amid concerns that Russia has amassed enough troops on the Ukrainian border to launch an offensive "any day now." U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said as much over the weekend, adding that an invasion could take place before the end of the Beijing Olympics. Meanwhile, senior U.S. officials refused to confirm earlier reports that Russia could attack as soon as on Wednesday but stressed that a Russian invasion could take place any day.
  • Having cut his family holiday short due to the tense international situation, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said a Russian offensive is "highly likely" and could now happen "at any time." He likened some of the diplomatic efforts to diffuse the crisis to appeasement, noting that Russia could still back down but "there is a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West." His comments were criticised by Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, who told the BBC that "it's not the best time for us to offend our partners in the world, reminding them of this act which actually did not bring peace but the opposite, it bought war."
  • Wallace's remarks came on the heels of a phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The Élysée Palace said that the Russian leader gave "no indication" that he was preparing to attack Ukraine.
  • The French presidency stressed that the positions of Paris and Berlin are "perfectly aligned," with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to visit Kyiv on Monday before touching down in Moscow on Tuesday. German government officials told the FT that Scholz would urge Putin to de-escalate the crisis and warn him of “how grave the consequences of an attack would be.” They played down the chances that "we'll come out of this with some kind of concrete result."
  • Poland's Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński tweeted that Ukraine's is preparing for a potential influx of refugees from Ukraine. Earlier reports suggested that the government has asked municipal authorities to draft appropriate logistical plans within 48 hours.

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