FM Sturgeon Resigns; Provides Blow To Independence, Boost To Labour

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon delivering her resignation speech at Bute House in Edinburgh. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1EzaPFH9Xw

• Sturgeon's resignation will have major implications for both Scottish and broader UK politics.
• In Scotland, Sturgeon has been the face of the pro-independence campaign for eight years and her departure leaves the movement without a well-known figurehead. Recent polling has shown the pro- and anti-independence campaigns trading the lead, with neither side establishing a consistent margin of support ahead of the other.
• While the SNP regroups behind a new leader, the prospect of an independence referendum taking place in October, as announced by Sturgeon in June 2022 was already slim following a Supreme Court ruling against the Scottish gov'ts powers in this area. Without Sturgeon, the prospect falls to near zero.
• In the longer term in the UK, Sturgeon's departure could have a notable impact on the next parliament. For PM Rishi Sunak's pro-union Conservatives, Sturgeon's SNP was a reliable driver of unionist voters towards their candidates. Without a strong pro-independence voice, more pro-union Scottish voters may be inclined to opt for Labour candidates at the next election, who while pro-union are more economically left wing in line with Scotland's voter base.
• Winning a large number of seats in Scotland was essential to the strength of the Labour gov'ts of former PM Tony Blair, and if Keir Starmer's Labour can win a number of seats north of the border from the SNP (which currently holds 48 of the 59 Scottish seats in Westminster) it will make the prospect of a Labour majority much more likely.