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Foreign Reserves Shrink On FX Interventions, All Eyes On GDP Data

IDR

Spot USD/IDR changes hands -55 figs at IDR15,683, with bears looking for a dip through Oct 28 low of IDR15,523. Bulls need a clearance of Nov 4 high of IDR15,750 before taking aim at the IDR16,000 mark again.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +51 figs at IDR15,685. Topside focus falls on Nov 3 high of IDR15,838, followed by the IDR16,000 figure. Bears keep an eye on Oct 26 low of IDR15,490.
  • The rupiah was the regional underperformer last week as Indonesia's CPI outturns missed expectations, while central bank Gov Warjiyo said knock-on effects of fuel price hikes were smaller than anticipated.
  • Foreign investors were net sellers of $11.85mn in Indonesian equities last Friday. The Jakarta Comp eked out some gains, but has lost ground today, having shed ~0.3% so far.
  • Palm oil futures are extending gains this morning, last trading +MYR34/MT, despite previously flagged headwinds. The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has crossed above its 100-DMA and last sits 0.4% above neutral levels.
  • Bank Indonesia reported that the nation's foreign reserves fell to $130.2bn last month, the lowest level since Apr 2020, due to the payment of the government's external debt and interventions to stabilise the rupiah.
  • Indonesia's Q3 GDP data will cross the wires at the top of the hour. The economy is estimated to have grown 5.60% Y/Y in the three months through end-September, according to a Bloomberg consensus forecast.
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