Foreign Sec To Address Conservative MPs On Brexit Deal Tuesday

Wires reporting that UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will address the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs on Tuesday 21 February regarding what is believed to be a deal reached/about to be reached between the EU and UK on the Northern Ireland protocol. The tenor of the address - whether about the details of a deal, or more broadly encouraging Conservative MPs to get on side with the gov't - will determine whether the address is seen as a positive sign or one of division in the ranks.

• The gov'ts working majority stands at 70 seats, meaning 35 Conservatives could break ranks and vote against a deal and it would still pass (a tied vote would usually go in the gov'ts favour). The hard-line eurosceptic European Reform Group is believed to have around 30 committed members at present, who would likely side with the DUP and oppose a deal involving the ECJ in any capacity. As such, if just this group opposes an updated protocol, the gov't likely has the votes to pass it.
• However, there has been speculation that allies of former PM Boris Johnson could also oppose a reworked protocol. While this number is more fluid, the Boris-ite cohort combined with the ERG would almost certainly have enough votes to defeat a reworked NI protocol.