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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
A former minister has called for the removal of PM Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party in a move that could spark a re-emergence of the internal divisions that are seen to have contributed to the incumbent party's polling slide. Sir Simon Clarke, who served as Levelling-Up, Housing and Communities Secretary during the short-lived tenure of Liz Truss, wrote in The Daily Telegraphthat the PM must be replaced in order to give the Conservatives a fighting chance in the upcoming general election (seen as likely in Q424).
- The immediate response has been a 'circling of the wagons' around Sunak with many prominent MPs, including those on the right viewed as potentially inclined towards a change in leader, voicing their support for the PM.
- In order to bring about a leadership challenge, 53 Conservative MPs (representing 15% of the parliamentary party) would be required to submit letters of no confidence in the PM. At present, just one (Andrea Jenkyns, Morley & Outwood) has publicly confirmed the submission of such a letter.
- Political betting markets show consensus is behind Sunak remaining as Conservative leader until the next general election at least. Data from Smarkets gives Sunak an 83.3% implied probability of remaining in office until that point.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability, 'Will Rishi Sunak be leader of the Conservative Party at the next general election?', %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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