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Four Court Cases Expected To Steal Limelight Tomorrow

THAILAND
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Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced that has contracted COVID-19 and will be out of action until Wednesday. During this time, we may see some progress in four critically important legal cases, which represent a culmination of recent tensions within Thailand's uneasy ruling coalition and may shake the domestic political scene.

  • On June 18, the Constitutional Court will review (1) Srettha's ethics case that could lead to his ouster; (2) main opposition Move Forward Party's dissolution case; (3) a case concerning Senate election rules. In addition, the Office of the Attorney General has summoned Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) political patron Thaksin Shinawatra for the indictment process in a lese-majeste case.
  • Some observers have drawn parallels with 2014, when the apex court's verdicts nullifying a general election and unseating Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (Thaksin's sister) paved the way for a military coup led by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha who later became head of government himself. Although the PTP and the military-backed parties are now in a coalition, inevitable tensions remain.
  • Reports of a conflict between Thaksin and Palang Pracharath Party's (PPRP's) Prawit Wongsuwan have been doing the rounds recently. In fact, Thaksin came close to naming Prawit as the person responsible for legal challenges against himself and Srettha. One analyst (Ken Mathis Lohatepanont) noted that "institutional privileges that the conservative parties had are evaporating," which is a source of friction.
  • The verdicts in the four legal cases may only be announced over the next weeks if not months, but observers will be on the lookout for early hints on the possible consequences. Crucially, if Srettha is removed as PM, his government would also be unseated and his successor would be picked by parliament from among PM candidates submitted at last year's election by parties with at least 25 seats. This time around, the Senate would not be involved in the selection of the PM.
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Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced that has contracted COVID-19 and will be out of action until Wednesday. During this time, we may see some progress in four critically important legal cases, which represent a culmination of recent tensions within Thailand's uneasy ruling coalition and may shake the domestic political scene.

  • On June 18, the Constitutional Court will review (1) Srettha's ethics case that could lead to his ouster; (2) main opposition Move Forward Party's dissolution case; (3) a case concerning Senate election rules. In addition, the Office of the Attorney General has summoned Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) political patron Thaksin Shinawatra for the indictment process in a lese-majeste case.
  • Some observers have drawn parallels with 2014, when the apex court's verdicts nullifying a general election and unseating Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (Thaksin's sister) paved the way for a military coup led by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha who later became head of government himself. Although the PTP and the military-backed parties are now in a coalition, inevitable tensions remain.
  • Reports of a conflict between Thaksin and Palang Pracharath Party's (PPRP's) Prawit Wongsuwan have been doing the rounds recently. In fact, Thaksin came close to naming Prawit as the person responsible for legal challenges against himself and Srettha. One analyst (Ken Mathis Lohatepanont) noted that "institutional privileges that the conservative parties had are evaporating," which is a source of friction.
  • The verdicts in the four legal cases may only be announced over the next weeks if not months, but observers will be on the lookout for early hints on the possible consequences. Crucially, if Srettha is removed as PM, his government would also be unseated and his successor would be picked by parliament from among PM candidates submitted at last year's election by parties with at least 25 seats. This time around, the Senate would not be involved in the selection of the PM.