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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PERU
The latest opinion poll from Peru ahead of the 6 June presidential election shows the closest race yet, with leftist Free Peru candidate Pedro Castillo just 2% ahead of right-wing Popular Force candidate Keiko Fujimori.
- Peru, CIT poll: Presidential election (second round): Castillo (PL, left): 51% (-1), Fujimori (FP, right): 49% (+1). (+/- vs. 28-30 April '21). Fieldwork: 7-8 May '21. Sample size: 2,400. 'Don't Knows' and 'Neither' excluded.
- This is the latest in a series of polls that have shown Fujimori gaining on Castillo. The election campaign remains a bitter one, with Castillo and his allies casting Fujimori as an authoritarian in the mould of her father, Alberto, who governed Peru during the 1990s with an iron fist. Fujimori and her supporters on the other hand cast Castillo as a dangerous Marxist who would transform Peru into another Venezuela.
- While the markets may take some comfort from the polls showing Castillo losing ground, it should be noted that a significant proportion of the electorate remains undecided.
- Some surveys carried out in the aftermath of the shock first-round result showed a significant proportion of the electorate saying they would 'never' vote for Fujimori, with the proportion saying the same about Castillo much lower. As such, the leftist candidate may be able to rely more heavily on undecided voters come election day than Fujimori, who - alongside her father - remains a polarising figure.
Chart 1. Second-Round Opinion Polling, %
Source: CPI, IEP, Datum, CIT, Ipsos, IDICE, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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