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Further Front-Loading Of Hikes In BAX Path

CANADA
  • BAX implied yields are hanging onto increases through to early 2023 (+5bps in 2H22), supported by stronger than expected CPI inflation, especially within the details.
  • Combined with another +2% M/M increase in Teranet/National Bank house prices in April (contrary to the fall in resale prices), this has seen a further front-loading in the rate path whilst longer rates rally.
  • Similarly, OIS drifts higher to 53-54bps of hikes priced for the Jun 1 BoC decision.
  • The net result is a crudely implied terminal policy rate between 3-3.25%, reached in early 2023 and with only limited inversion into 2024.

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