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Futures moving higher as Bailey fails to commit to more hikes

SONIA
  • Governor Bailey's failure to commit to further hikes (when the market had been pricing 93bp of hikes cumulatively this year and pricing more than 25bp for the March meeting) has caught the market offside.
  • Bailey's comments in isolation are not particularly dovish - they are broadly in line with his tone at the February MPR when he last spoke - but the market has moved on since then, largely driven by more hawkish comments from other central banks, as well as a strong UK PMI print.
  • The Dec-23 SONIA futures contract is now more than 10 ticks higher on the day (but prior to Bailey's comments it had been 3 ticks lower on the day).
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