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Gallup Economic Confidence Index Largely Unchanged From Feb

US

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, “is at -20 in March, similar to the -22 found in February but sharply higher than the readings near -50 measured last fall. The index is currently at its highest point since a -12 reading in August 2021.”

  • Gallup notes: “This month, President Joe Biden has touted indicators of strong economic performance in his State of the Union address and on the campaign trail. These include record stock values, easing inflation, job creation and low unemployment. Yet, Americans still feel the cumulative effects of rising prices from the past two years.”
  • Gallup adds that, “economic confidence has conformed with the election outcome in two elections when confidence was relatively high or low,” and “while the current ECI score is not promising for Biden, Gallup trends show it has the capacity to change in the span of a few months.”
  • The index suggests at a stabilisation of economic confidence which is now starting to reflect in polling. Two key surveys released this week from Bloomberg and CNBC found that Biden has strengthened against former President Donald Trump across swing states.

Figure 1: Economic Confidence Index, January 2020-March 2024

Source: Gallup

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