Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

Front month TTF is trading higher on the day but has eased from intraday highs of 36.25 EUR/MWh. TTF is supported by forecasts for colder weather in early January and risks to LNG supplies from the Red Sea. Capping upside are healthy near-term supplies and muted European demand.

• TTF JAN 24 up 2.5% at 34.35€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.3% at 34.54€/MWh
• At least 8 LNG vessels have diverted away from the Red Sea and towards the Cape of Good Hope according to Kpler due to ongoing security issues.
• Germany’s Uniper is pausing Red Sea LNG shipments headed for Europe and elsewhere amid ongoing Houthi rebels’ attacks on ships in the region, a company spokesperson told Bloomberg.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 18.2% below the 2018-21 average, Bnteza data showed.
• Norwegian nominated flows to the UK and Northwest Europe terminals at 351.90 mcm/d vs 5-day moving avg 356.52 mcm/d.
• European gas storage was 88% full on Dec. 19 vs the 5-yr seasonal norm of 77% for this time of year according to GIE data.
• LNG flows to Northwest Europe on Dec. 19 were 269.40 mcm/d - in line with the 30-day average.
• China’s imports of LNG cargoes in the week to Dec. 27 is forecast at 2.03m mt, according to OilChem.
• LNG freight rates from the USGC have fallen to a four-month low, according to Platts, amid falling demand and an increased supply of vessels.
• Russia’s Novatek sent force majeure notices to some LNG buyers from its upcoming export facility Arctic LNG 2 as sanctions from the US threaten the startup of the facility that was scheduled in the coming weeks according to Bloomberg.