Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Surges

TTF front month is surging higher again to set fresh highs towards the end of the day with support from near term supply risks combining with easing temperatures into October. Front month futures are trading up to the highest since early April.

• TTF OCT 23 up 9.4% at 43.55€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 4.1% at 49.33€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 256.7mcm/d as field and processing plants gradually return from maintenance. An unplanned maintenance at the large Troll field in Norway will reduce supplies by 5mcm/d on 25-26 September and 25mcm/d of unavailable supply on 26-27 September, Gassco remit data show. The outage will lift Norway’s unavailable natural gas supplies to 119mcm/d on Tuesday, compared with 94mcm/d previously scheduled.
• The Skarv gas field in Norway is expected to see additional cuts of 22.1mcm/d until early next month due to process problems on top of the planned outages.
• European natural gas storage is up to 94.74% full on 23 Sep with injection rates recovering slightly in recent days according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 86.1%.
• The latest month ahead weather forecast shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• Chevron failed to provide the unions with an agreement that incorporates agreed bargaining outcomes and the recommendations of the Fair Work Commissions according to the Offshore Alliance.
• European natural gas demand won’t tail off until at least the end of the next decade according to Uniper.
• The expansion of Qatar’s North Field LNG project is going well and there is a possibility of selling all of the LNG capacity from the project by the end of this year, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs said.
• China’s imports of LNG in August rose 7.81% on the month to 6.30m mt, according to the General Administration of Customs of China.
• BP’s planned 2.5mtpa Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG development on the maritime border of Senegal and Mauritania has been delayed to 2024, from this year previously scheduled, because of pandemic-related issues and disputes with contractors, the firm said.
• The last major bit of infrastructure required for Mexico’s first floating LNG plant is set to depart from a Texas shipyard this week.
• German gas-fired output for power generation so far in the third quarter stood at 21.46TWh, or a share of 20.3% of total power output, the highest level for the third quarter since 2020, data from Fraunhofer ISE show.
• SEFE should end its agreement to lift LNG from Russia’s Yamal facility, Philipp Steinberg, who heads the German Economy Ministry’s department for economic stabilisation and energy security said, according to Bloomberg.
• The global gas market is far from a state of stable equilibrium with Russian supply cuts still reverberating through the market according to Timera Energy.