Free Trial
OIL PRODUCTS

Chinese Diesel Exports Flowing on Higher Quotas

BONDS

Gilts Underperforming, EGBs Eyeing TLTROS

EGB OPTIONS

Bobl downside structure

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW

On offer next week: Up to E6.2bln 12/23/49-week BTFs

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
US

Real Clear Politics' generic congressional ballot is now showing the tightest margin between Democrats and Republicans since January 19.

  • Chart 1 shows the generic ballot tracker over a period of 30 days. The chart clearly shows the bottom of Democrat performance, June 24 - the day the Supreme Court released its ruling in Dobbs vs Jackson Women's Health.
  • Since that ruling, the generic ballot has tightened from Republican +3.4 to Republican +1.3 with three polls favouring Democrats, three polls favouring Republicans and one tie.
  • This is suggestive of a "Dobbs effect" trend pushing the needle towards the Democrats but it is unclear how instructive the generic ballot, or President Biden's approval rating, two traditional electoral indicators, will be for informing this year's midterm elections.
  • Natalie Jackson of the National Journal suggests that polling is becoming increasingly fraught as the political landscape becomes more polarised: "Indeed, as Ariel Edwards-Levy wrote, “expressive responding” (respondents giving the answer that aligns with their partisanship regardless of what the question is asking) seems to be infiltrating all sorts of survey questions."
  • To further complicate midterm polling, Gerrymandering has significantly cut the number of competitive races. According to the Cook Political Report there are now 55 competitive race, down from 75 at the last midterms in 2018. This means fewer seats which will be influenced by a "referendum on abortion."
  • Jackson continues by suggesting that the generic ballot is a better gauge of "the political environment rather than a measure of electoral outcomes."
  • Note: Regarding the most recent data from the Economist/YouGov giving Democrats a +3 margin. G. Elliott Morris of the Economist today highlighted a methodological flaw with the YouGov model which disproportionately gathered data from Republican respondents. The generic ballot aggregators will be amending the YouGov problem in coming days.

Chart 1: Generic Ballot 30 Day Chart (Real Clear Politics)

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.