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GILTS: Initial Weakness Fades

GILTS

Spill over from bids in wider core global FI markets and weakness in oil counters initial selling seen at the gilt open.

  • Futures printed through initial support, hitting 98.51, before recovering to ~98.70 at typing.
  • The corrective technical cycle has extended in recent days.
  • Initial resistance seen at the 20-day EMA (99.82)
  • Conversely, today’s low protects key support at the Sep 2 low (98.11).
  • Yields little changed on the day.
  • Readthrough into fiscal policy from PM Starmer suggesting that he wants government spending to catalyse private investment, while noting that he has “always thought that we should borrow to invest” likely behind the early dip.
  • SONIA futures & BoE pricing around levels flagged pre-open, little changed on the day, ~40bp of cuts priced through year-end.
  • Nothing of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on central bank comments from the ECB & Fed, as well as the U.S. data.
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Spill over from bids in wider core global FI markets and weakness in oil counters initial selling seen at the gilt open.

  • Futures printed through initial support, hitting 98.51, before recovering to ~98.70 at typing.
  • The corrective technical cycle has extended in recent days.
  • Initial resistance seen at the 20-day EMA (99.82)
  • Conversely, today’s low protects key support at the Sep 2 low (98.11).
  • Yields little changed on the day.
  • Readthrough into fiscal policy from PM Starmer suggesting that he wants government spending to catalyse private investment, while noting that he has “always thought that we should borrow to invest” likely behind the early dip.
  • SONIA futures & BoE pricing around levels flagged pre-open, little changed on the day, ~40bp of cuts priced through year-end.
  • Nothing of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on central bank comments from the ECB & Fed, as well as the U.S. data.