Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week wraps up with a round of European industrial production data, before the focus turns towards US nonfarm payrolls and the Canadian labour force survey.
Germany Industrial Production (0700 BST)
Germany will likely kick off with the worse eurozone IP print this morning, set to contact by -0.3% m/m and by -1.5% y/y, albeit a softer slide than -1.5% y/y seen in June. This follows the hot -9.0% y/y contraction in June factory orders posted yesterday, which hints at a significant slowdown in industrial demand going forward.
France Industrial Production & Trade Balance (0745 BST)
French industrial trade is anticipated to have followed suit in June, albeit seeing a less severe fall of -0.3% in both the month-on-month and annualised readings. The June trade balance is also due, anticipated to see around a 0.5bln decrease in the deficit to around 12.5bln.
Italy Industrial Production (0900 BST)
Despite a small -0.1% m/m deceleration anticipated in June’s Italian IP print, this is an improvement on the -1.15 m/m slide in May. In the annualised reading +2.7% y/y growth is pencilled in, as such coming in stronger than Germany and France.
Across all three regions, hampered supply chains, high energy prices and slowing growth outlooks have contributed to a slide in new orders in recent months.
This in conjunction with the intensification of tensions with Russia has seen significantly less security surrounding gas supplies going into Winter. This could see a further substantial slowdown into the end of the year, which will feed into weaker GDP numbers and ECB’s calculations regarding the resilience of a fragile euro area economy.
Canada Labour Force Survey (1330 BST)
Canadian unemployment could to tick up 0.1pp to 5.0% in July, likely reflecting discouraged job seekers leaving the labour force. A weak 15,000 increase in employment (vs the 43,000 fall in June) is also expected.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (1330 BST)
A resumption of the downward trend after four strong months of growth is in sight for the US July nonfarm payrolls, with consensus looking for a 250,000 rise, down around 120,000 from June. Sell-side expectations range between 180,000 and 300,000, and see the unemployment rate stable at 3.6%.
Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
See our comprehensive preview here.
This week rounds off with the BOE’s Pill Monetary Policy Report National Agency Briefing following yesterday’s 50bp hike and Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin’s remarks to the Lexington Chamber of Commerce.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 05/08/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 05/08/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 05/08/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Current Account |
| 05/08/2022 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2022 | 1115/1215 | | UK | BOE Pill Monetary Policy Report National Agency Briefing | |
| 05/08/2022 | 1200/0800 |  | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 05/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 05/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/08/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.