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Goldman Sachs Forecast GDP to Grow by +1.1% QoQ in Q3

TURKEY
  • On a sequential and seasonally adjusted basis, Goldman Sachs forecast GDP to grow by +1.1% q/q in Q3, down from +3.5% q/q in Q2, and in annual terms by +5.7% y/y, up from +5.1% y/y in Q2.
  • While TRY loan growth has been deeply negative in real terms for all of Q3, domestic demand was still supported by mid-year wage hikes, they say. Furthermore, they say the impulse from fiscal loosening ahead of the elections in May and from credit expansion earlier in the year spilled over to Q3 as well.
  • Looking ahead, they expect Turkish GDP to contract in Q4 as the impact of wage hikes dissipated and policy tightened further into the quarter. They see overall growth at +4.0% for 2023 as a whole (against the government projection of +4.4%).

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