Gov't Negotiations Look Set To Drag On Through Summer At Least

Any prospect of a swift end to Spain's political paralysis following the inconclusive 23 July general election looks to have been shattered, with acting PM Pedro Sanchez set to wait until the second half of August to even begin negotiations over forming a gov't. These talks could come after the new parliament is established on 17 August according to EFE.

• The next important date will be in late August/early September, when King Felipe VI summons party leaders and proposes a candidate for an investiture vote in parliament.
• The first investiture vote requires a majority of 176 members in favour in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, this appears unlikely. If the candidate fails in the first vote, a second takes place 48 hours later where a simple majority is required.
• For Sanchez and his centre-left PSOE , this is possible if he achieves the backing of almost all regionalist parties. Crucially he would need the support or abstention of the populist pro-Catalan independence Junts of exiled former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont. This could require notable concessions on amnesty for Puigdemont/a legal independence referendum. However, the PSOE have labelled both prospects red lines that cannot be crossed.
• If the candidate is rejected in both investiture votes this starts a two-month countdown for parties to reach an agreement and hold a successful investiture vote. If this cannot be achieved, snap elections are called.