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- Goldman see core CPI inflation a little above consensus at +0.6% M/M (cons. 0.5%) in Friday's Nov release, pushing the annual rate up from 4.6% to 5.0% Y/Y.
- This reflects further increases in used car auction prices and a rebound in airfares, as well as “upward pressure on most core goods categories due to supply chain bottlenecks and low promotionality during the holiday season”.
- Other specific factors include a Netflix price increase likely boosting service inflation and “another strong gain in health insurance prices reflecting the gradual flow-through of the annual source data”.
- Shelter is expected to remain stronger, with rent +0.42% M/M and OER +0.38% M/M, with OER weighed on by imputed utilities.
- Headline CPI is likely to be stronger still, up 0.8% M/M on higher restaurant, grocery and energy prices.