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Haley "Surges" In Iowa Following First Debate

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Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for former President Donald Trump, has circulated a memowarning that Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy have both received a polling bump in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire following the first Republican presidential debate.

  • Fabrizio: “However, DeSantis does find himself in a statistical three-way tie with Haley and Ramaswamy for 2nd place in New Hampshire. Haley appears to have gotten a bump from the debate, surging into double digits in Iowa and into a three-way tie for 2nd place in New Hampshire.”
  • Axios: “Fabrizio's memo, sent to fundraisers and allies of former President Trump, said that all three remain far behind him in the first two states that will vote in the GOP primary season.”
  • The memo suggests that Trump may be showing signs of vulnerability in the early primary states, despite his large lead nationwide. Trump's lead may shrink further if he decides to skip upcoming presidential debates and leave himself open to more sustained sustained attacks.

Figure 1: “If the Republican President (Caucus/Primary) were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?”

Source: Fabrizio/Lee

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