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Free AccessHaley "Surges" In Iowa Following First Debate
Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for former President Donald Trump, has circulated a memowarning that Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy have both received a polling bump in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire following the first Republican presidential debate.
- Fabrizio: “However, DeSantis does find himself in a statistical three-way tie with Haley and Ramaswamy for 2nd place in New Hampshire. Haley appears to have gotten a bump from the debate, surging into double digits in Iowa and into a three-way tie for 2nd place in New Hampshire.”
- Axios: “Fabrizio's memo, sent to fundraisers and allies of former President Trump, said that all three remain far behind him in the first two states that will vote in the GOP primary season.”
- The memo suggests that Trump may be showing signs of vulnerability in the early primary states, despite his large lead nationwide. Trump's lead may shrink further if he decides to skip upcoming presidential debates and leave himself open to more sustained sustained attacks.
Figure 1: “If the Republican President (Caucus/Primary) were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?”
Source: Fabrizio/Lee
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.