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High inflation in the EZ pulling STIR futures lower

STIR FUTURES
  • Euribor futures are leading the way lower this morning after the higher than expected Spanish HICP print as well as German regional CPI prints also coming in on the high side. Reds are the biggest movers, down up to 9.5 ticks on the day. Despite ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane strongly hinting against 50bp hikes in the upcoming meetings, markets still see risks and price 57bp by September. 113bp is now priced by year-end, up around 12bp from Friday's close.
  • SONIA futures are being dragged lower by the moves in Euribor this morning with little new news in the UK. Reds are down up to 7.5 ticks with markets now back to pricing a 65% probability of a 50bp hike by August and pricing 131bp of hikes by year-end.
  • Eurodollar futures have seen the smallest moves, but with other US markets closed for Memorial Day, liquidity is likely to be a bit constrained today. Whites and Reds are down up to 5.0 ticks.

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