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H&M (HMBSS; NR, BBB) {HMB SS Equity}

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Mids look untouched on the H&M SLB €29 at Z=104 & Grn €31's at Z+130 (only bonds outstanding) - we see room for it tighten - less of a earnings view than reversion to rating comp's - 2 notch higher Adidas is now spread at +63bps on the 29's (up from ~30bps in the middle of last year) & 31's give +30 over 1-notch higher ATDBCN & +44 over 2-notch higher booking. Spread on the 29's since issuance vs. € Retailers below.
  • We wouldn't look too much at equity gains, its a volatile stock that is only paring back late Jan losses on FY23 results. Some of that volatility is reflected in 29's trading history - though we are bit unclear on drivers (it traded through FY23 results but sold off soon after Q3 results).
  • As we mentioned earlier, H&M pays out sizeable dividends (SEK 10b+/yr) & has buyback programmes (unclear going forward on new programme amount/pace) & repayment of lease liabilities (SEK 12-13b/yr) - though quoted leverage (1.4*, 1.0-2.0* target, is net debt inclusive of leases).

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