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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
Executive summary
- Global equities have experienced a significant 'bull' consolidation in recent weeks, with the MSCI world index up by over 10% since its mid-July low.
- However, fundamentally the macro picture has not changed with global and local leading indicators pricing in a significant deterioration in the economic activity in the coming 6 to 12 months.
- Is the market experiencing a ‘bear’ rally?
Link to full publication:
MNI MARKETS ANALYSIS - Global Picture - F.pdf
Figure 1 (left frame) shows the OECD 'Diffusion' index, which looks at the percentage of countries with rising Leading Economic Indicators. It is currently pricing in a global PMI at 45, well below the 50-line threshold that separates growth from contraction. Figure 1 (right frame) shows that the sharp contraction in China 'liquidity' in 2021 is still pricing in further downside risk in the near term before a pickup in the activity in early 2023.
Figure
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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