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KOREAN WON: HSBC "think normalisation of the KRW can happen when four conditions
-1) A stronger CNY on reduced US tariff threat
- 2) A further correction lower by the DXY index
- 3) A material improvement in exports growth
- 4) A resumption of equity inflows and unhedged bond inflows from foreign
- In our view, the chances that some of these conditions will materialise in
H220 have risen. Others may take more time, perhaps in 2021. Hence, we lower our
USD/KRW forecast slightly, to KRW1,185 for end-2020 (from KRW1,210), and further
to KRW1,160 for end-2021 (from KRW1,210). Rising structural outflows by resident
investors (diversification into foreign assets) constrain us from turning more
constructive on the KRW."