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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
The IMF revised up its 2023 global growth forecast to 3% from 2.8% in April after 3.5% in 2022. 2023 was always expected to see a slowdown but the global economy has proved more resilient than originally projected. In October 2022, the IMF forecast 2.7% for 2023. The upward revision was driven by both developed (+0.2pp) and emerging economies (+0.1pp). 2025 is also expected to grow by the below-average 3%.
- The IMF sees risks to growth skewed to the downside stemming from higher inflation (Ukraine, weather events) resulting in higher rates, financial stability and China’s troubled property market. Upside risks are from faster disinflation and resilient demand. It advises central banks to focus on sustained disinflation, and strengthening financial supervision & risk monitoring. Governments should build fiscal buffers.
- Developed country growth in 2023 is now expected to be 1.5% revised up from 1.3% with major countries seeing higher growth except Germany. The US was revised to 1.8% (+0.2pp), euro area 0.9% (+0.1pp), Japan 1.4% (+0.1pp) and the UK 0.4% (+0.7pp). Germany however is forecast to shrink by 0.3% (-0.2pp) but France grow by 0.8% (+0.1pp). 2024 OECD growth is forecast to be only 1.4%.
- The upward revision to EM growth was driven by emerging Europe and Latin America, as forecasts for China and developing Asia were left unchanged for 2023 at 5.2% and 5.3% respectively easing to 4.5% and 5% in 2024. India was revised up 0.2pp to 6.1% in 2023. Emerging Europe should grow by 1.8% (+0.6pp – driven by +0.8pp to Russian growth) and Latin America 1.9% (+0.3pp).
Global GDP growth forecasts %
Source: MNI - Market News/IMF/World Bank/OECD
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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