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IMF Sees Growth Substantially Cooling With Risks To Downside

CANADA
  • The IMF expects a “substantial further cooling” for the Canadian economy, with risks tilted to the downside as shocks to easily push the Canadian economy into a mild recession, something at least a few sellside analysts formally call for.
  • It forecasts average GDP growth of 3.3% in 2022 and then 1.5% in 2023 while the unemployment rate could rise above 6%, although the economic outlook could be substantially worse.
  • That compares with Bloomberg consensus for 1.0% growth in 2023 and an unemployment rate averaging 5.6% in both 2023 and 2024.
  • “Driven by rising rates, house prices are expected to retrace much of their pandemic run-up, falling 20 percent or more from their peak, with rising immigration cushioning the decline”.
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