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Inflation Expected To Accelerate To 7.3% in November

  • On Friday, NBP policymaker Hardt mentioned in an interview that a stronger PLN could help to fight inflation in Poland, which may top 7% in November.
  • According to Governor Glapinski, inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated until January 2022, with some sell side firms expecting CPI inflation to peak at 8%.
  • Selling pressures on PLN have been elevated in November amid worsening economic outlook.
  • Demand for the US Dollar seems to be very strong as preference for 'safe' assets has been constantly rising due to the Covid uncertainty.
  • A December hike is very likely; however, the magnitude of the hike will depend strongly on inflation data coming out on November 30.
  • Market is expecting CPI inflation to accelerate to 7.3% YoY in November.
  • Earlier this morning, NBP policymaker Eryk Lon wrote in an article that it is worth considering keeping rates unchanged at the December meeting (Dec 8).

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