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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)
SOUTH AFRICA OCT CPI +0.4% M/M (FCST +0.2%); SEP +0.1% M/M
SOUTH AFRICA OCT CPI +7.6% Y/Y (FCST +7.4%); SEP +7.5% Y/Y
SOUTH AFRICA OCT CORE CPI +5.0% Y/Y (FCST +4.9%); SEP +4.7% Y/Y
- South African CPI surprised to the upside in October, accelerating by 0.1pp to +7.6% y/y against expectations of cooling by 0.1pp. Compared to September, prices quickened by +0.4% m/m (vs +0.1% in Sep). Food and energy remain key drivers.
- Goods inflation eased to 10.5% y/y (vs +10.7% in Sep), whilst services inflation accelerated to 4.6% y/y (vs +4.3% in Sep).
- Inflation has remained uncomfortably higher than the SARB's 3-6% target range since May. Of most concern will be the 0.3pp uptick in core CPI, driven by durable goods and services.
- This will likely push the South African Reserve Bank to hike by 75bp rather than 50bp, tilting the prime mortgage rate over 10% for the first time since 2019. This represents a blunt and direct psychological level that should filter swiftly into consumer spending patterns ahead of year-end.
- See our in-depth preview of tomorrow's SARB meeting here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/21206/MNISAR...
Source: MNI / Statistics South Africa
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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