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INR NEER Only Modestly Lower, Despite Strong USD/INR gains

INR

Spot USD/INR has printed at another fresh record high today. The pair was last at 81.89, a further +0.38% for the session so far. We touched above 81.90 in the first part of trading. Onshore bond yields are higher, last at 7.34% for the 10yr (+4.5bps), but we remain within recent ranges. India's potential inclusion into J.P. Morgan's EM debt index has been pushed back to next year.

  • Since USD/INR broke above 80.00 last Thursday, INR has lost 2.33% against the USD. This is close to the worst performance within EM Asia, with only CNY, THB and KRW, falling by more over this period.
  • Still, compared to the G10 space, only JPY and CAD have outperformed INR. This leaves the INR NEER only 0.44% off its recent highs.
  • The RBI meeting is coming up this Friday, with the market looking for a 50bps hike (to 5.90%).
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