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Insertion Of Russian Troops In Ukraine Likely

SECURITY
  • The Russian Security Council meeting today is likely to lead to several immediate outcomes.
    • The recognition of the Luhansk Peoples Republic and the Donetsk Peoples Republic by the Russian Federation.
    • The insertion of Russian troops within the breakaway Republics.
    • The tentative drawing of lines of control.
  • The questions that need to be answered now are:
    • Where the lines of control will be drawn? Will there be an attempt to expand lines of control? There is some suggestion that Russia intends the lines of control to be expanded to the Dnieper River which will provide a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.
    • Will Ukraine dig in to fortify the line of control? It is difficult to see how Kyiv can accept the loss of the breakaway Republics without a fight. There is a considerable ethnic Ukrainian population residing in these regions.
    • Will a full package of US sanctions be applied immediately? This is key and we should know the answer soon. The US has stated that recognition of the Republics is a red line for NATO.
    • How will Kyiv react to the ongoing presence of Russian troops in Belarus? The tactical position of Belarus is strategically key to applying pressure on the Ukrainian capital. A withdrawal from Belarus might be the best that Zelensky can hope for if he accepts the loss of Donetsk and Luhansk. The menacing presence of Russian troops less than 200 miles from Kyiv will be a powerful bargaining chip for Moscow.
  • The first NATO response to Putin will come from German Chancellor Olaf Sholz who will talk to Putin by phone shortly.
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