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Japan's Q2 GDP On Tap

JPY

USD/JPY pushed higher last Friday as participants continued to parse latest data/rhetoric for hints on the most likely trajectory of Fed policy tightening. Still, the rate failed to claw back its losses from earlier last week.

  • U.S./Japan 10-year yield spread shrank ~6bp but the gap between yields on 2-year gov't debt widened at the margin. Twist flattening in U.S. Tsy curve underpinned this divergence.
  • Equities were better bid last Friday, reducing the yen's safe-haven allure. Benchmark indices in Europe and the U.S. crept higher, while the VIX index printed its worst levels since early Apr.
  • The pair last sits at Y133.51, up 8 pips on the day. Technical focus falls on Y135.58 initially, where the rate topped out on Aug 8. Conversely, bears look for a sell-off past Aug 11 low/100-DMA at Y131.74/131.45.
  • Japan's flash Q2 GDP will be published later today and consensus forecast looks for a confirmation that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The final reading of June industrial output will be out later in the day.
  • Later this week, focus turns to trade balance & core machine orders (Wednesday) as well as national CPI (Friday).
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