JCPOA Talks In Critical Final Stage

There are still a number of possible outcomes but the role of China will be key to an agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - Iranian nuclear deal.

• Some analysts have pointed to a deepening bilateral relationship between Iran and China as a potential alternative to JCPOA for Iran. However, sale of crude and joint military maneuverers cover the often strained relationship Sino-Iranian relationship and Iran is an area of rare agreement between China and the West.
• Iran and China signed a 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in March 2021. The deal would provide for considerable investment via the BRI and a Chinese consulate in Iran for the first time. Infrastructure is now in place for Iran to start receiving Chinese FDI and developmental funds via the BRI.
• However implementation of the CSP requires Iranian compliance with JCPOA.
• Additionally, Iran stands to gain access to USD$100 billion is frozen currency reserves and access to global oil markets at a period of high oil prices.
• It is likely that China pushed Iran firmly towards JCPOA at recent high level diplomatic talks and if an agreement is reached Chinese influence in the region will expand considerably.
• Representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry last week suggested a deal is likely: 'If the day after the delegations return to Vienna, they respond correctly … and if they keep their demands within the framework of the JCPOA, we can reach a lasting, good and reliable agreement the next day...'