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JP Morgan Now Expect First RBI Rate Cut in August Rather Than June

INDIA
  • JP Morgan say India’s policymakers are currently confronting several cross currents. Growth has surprised to the upside even as the economy remains below its pre-pandemic path. Core inflation is at multi-year lows, but credit growth is at multi-year highs. Private investment is yet to broaden out but public investment has been strong. GDP growth is strong but GVA growth reveals a slowing.
  • With full-year growth expected to be close to 8%, inflation still above the 4% target, uncertainty about post-pandemic neutral rates and financial exuberance still to be contained, JPM expect the MPC to persevere with a status quo across rates, stance and tone at the April review.
  • They now expect the first cut only in August (previously June) – with the risk it gets pushed out further – when there is more evidence that growth is slowing, and more conviction that the monsoon is normal, inflation is settling close to 4%, and financial exuberance is more contained.
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