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JPM On A Hawkish BOC

CANADA
  • JPM share a similar view to the BoC that the inflation will likely move even higher in the near term before it begins to ease whilst the BoC also expressed heightened concerns about the risk that perceptions of elevated inflation become entrenched.
  • The BoC has become fond of using “forceful” or “forcefully” in its rhetoric recently; the hawkish sentiment appeared again in the monetary policy statement with “prepared to act more forcefully.”
  • JPM look for another 50bp hike on July 13 to 2.0%, the lower boundary of the Bank’s neutral range.
  • Gov Macklem did state at one point recently that the Bank isn’t going to rule anything out when asked about future monetary policy. Nevertheless, we generally place a low probability on balance sheet asset sales and policy rate increases larger than 50bp.
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